Ukraine peace talks may be 95% done, but Europe knows the final barrier isnt borders its Vladimir Putin.Catherine Wilsonreports.

EARLIER THIS WEEKU.S. President Donald Trump claimed Ukraine peace negotiations were "close to 95 percent done". Then, an outraged Russian state accusation of Ukraine launching a drone attack on one of Russian President Vladimir Putins residences preceded his rallying of troops for "victory"in Ukraine in his New Year speech. There is the Putin factor to consider in both Russias invasion of Ukraine and Europes security dynamics.

He is unique,Dr Anton Shekhovtsovat the Central European Universitys Department of International Relations said of Russian President, Vladimir Putin, during a call from Vienna. As a Ukrainian who was born in Sevastopol in the Crimea Dr Shekhovtsov is well-placed to know.

For the last three years, Christmas in Ukraine has meant no carols, processions or its celebrated puppet shows.

We are discussing the significance of Putins individual power dynamics in the invasion of Ukraine and escalating hybrid war being waged by Russia across Europe.

Shekhovtsov said:

Nearly four years later, theU.S.-led peace talksrevived in late November began with optimistic statements by Ukraines President, Volodymyr Zelensky, but broader European doubts about Russias commitment to peace continue. Last month, Zelensky intimated that he may consider relinquishing ambitions to join NATO, while the United States offered the besieged statesecurity guaranteesfor a period of 15 years. The primarily EuropeanCoalition of the Willinghas also proposed a multinational force to bolster security on the ground in Ukraine.

But it is unlikely that ground will be given by either side on the two most contentious issues, Russias territorialclaimsto the UkrainesDonbas regionand the fate of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, currently under Russian control. A Ukrainian publicpollconducted in December reported that 76 percent of respondents considered it unacceptable to recognize Russian possession of Ukrainian territories in exchange for ending the conflict.

Any thoughts of Putin entertaining compromises in the peace talks were jettisoned when, just before New Year, the Russian foreign ministry made a sudden public claim that Ukrainian drones had threatened one of Putins stateresidencesinside Russia. Zelensky responded that the accusation was ludicrous and typical Russian lies. But it has increased distrust between the two warring states and became the launch pad for more rallying to the war effort by Russia.

Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, wasreportedto have said on 29 December:

The developments in recent days have not diminished concerns in Europe of Putins potential and more expansive geopolitical goals on the continent. In December, NATO Secretary-General,Mark Rutte, warned of a potential Russian offensive in Europe within five years. Then Putin was reported to have declared at an internal defence meeting on 17 December that Russias war goals in Ukraine will be achievedunconditionally.

Ruttes announcement aligns, too, with warnings by Baltic and Eastern European leaders. Russias complex hybrid operations and acts of sabotage against Europe are increasingRussias strategic goals remain unchanged: to create a buffer zone stretching from the Arctic region through the Baltic and Black Seas to the Mediterranean, the leaders of Sweden, Finland, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania and Bulgaria said in a joint statement following theEastern Flank Summitheld in Helsinki on 16 December.

Russias relentless grey zone provocation with cyber attacks, border violations, disinformation and election interference aims to increase disunity in European democracies. And fly underneath the threshold of actions that could trigger a major NATO military response. In the last four months,dronescrossed the borders of Romania, Spain, Belgium, Germany and Poland, where arailway linewas also bombed, and Russian fighter jetsbreachedEstonian airspace. In 2023-2024 Russian-backed sabotage incidents in European nations tripled,reportsthe Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

Formerly employed by theKGBfrom 1975 to 1991, Putin had first-hand experience of hybrid warfare during the Cold War. And, according to Shekhovtsov, there is a connection to his motives today.

Shekhovtsov said:

The aspiration of former Soviet-sphere states to join the EU and NATO are a threat to Putins vision of Russias destiny. That of a vast Eurasian and Euro-Pacific power that brings together the Russian people and other peoples belonging to the cultural and civilizational community of the Russian world, as described in Russias 2023 foreign policypaper.

So far, NATOs response has been restrained with a focus on strengthening defence systems and territorial protection.

Jon Richardson, a former Australian diplomat with Moscow postings and Visiting Fellow at the Australian National University, claimed. European leaders see the risk of tensions spiralling into a larger conflict. Yet the status quo also plays into Russias presumption that NATO will not launch a major response to low-level interference.

During the Cold War the balance of military power and capability deterred outright war between Russia and the West with a perpetual standoff, but this looks more fragile today.

If the U.S. rejected its active role in the defence of NATO countries, Richardson pointed out:

He addedthat long-term rebuilding of European defence requires expenditure to rise back at least to Cold War levels of 3-4 per cent of GDP.

From Gaza to Ukraine, externally designed peace plans are replacing negotiation with compliance, reshaping sovereignty and sidelining the people most affected.

For now, Putins wartime leadership is the force to be reckoned with in considering Europes future security. Critically, his confidence and willingness to bide time are bolstered by a consolidated internal power base.

Shekhovtsov said:

Catherine Wilsonis a freelance journalist and correspondent, reporting on current affairs, global issues, humanitarian crises, politics and international development.

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