As Turkey witnesses itsbiggest protestsin more than a decade, theres intense speculation about whether these events will lead to a significant challenge to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan or a lurch further into authoritarianism.

The protests were prompted by thejailingof Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, the candidate from the main opposition Republican People's Party's (CHP) for the 2028 presidential election.

What happens next could have implications far beyond Turkeys borders.

The War In Ukraine

Early in the war, Turkey achieved a significant diplomatic success by mediating a deal between Russia and Ukraine enabling both countries to export grain through the Black Sea.

The deal was a crucial factor in getting vital Ukrainian grain exports to countries in the Global South that rely heavily on them -- lasting for a year beforeRussia pulled out.

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Its importance is underlined by the fact that Washington has made restoring it a key priority of its talks with Moscow and Kyiv.

Ankara has very much played its own game over the course of the war.

Although Turkey is a NATO member, Erdogan has sought to maintaingood relationswith Russian President Vladimir Putin. The two leaders share a strongman style that has perhaps cemented their understanding.

But this has not stopped Turkish drone manufacturerBayraktarpushing ahead with a planned factory in Ukraine. Its products played a key role in Ukraines defense in the early stages of the war.